I have three actions I want you to take before you receive our next regularly scheduled Update June 6, and The 25% Cash Machine June Newsletter on Tuesday, June 10.
The first thing I want you to do is sell Double-Hull Tanker (DHT). Seven of the nine vessels DHT operates are under multi-year base hire charters with Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG), at a much lower day rate than what the current spot market is paying.
So DHT is not getting the full benefit of the strong pricing environment as other crude shippers that have higher exposure to spot prices. This is why I believe shares of DHT have underperformed and why I now recommend the swap out of DHT and into Frontline Ltd. (FRO) to our portfolio.
Frontline is doing a much better job of executing profits in the current market for transporting crude oil. FRO posted Q1 results that showed a jump in profits of 40%, with a dividend hiked to $2.75 for the quarter. That translates into a current annual yield of 18.25%. Even better, the company forecasts continued strength in operations and quarterly distributions.
This kind of profit growth is a result of FRO being leveraged to the spot market for day charter rates for double-hull tankers. The company is by far-and-away the largest shipping company, with 76 vessels and a market cap of $4.4 billion.
So it's the "mac daddy" of the oil transport business and is showing the kind of relative strength that portends of higher share prices ahead. Following a ballistic rally that took the shares from $45 to $70 during the April-May timeframe, the stock paid its hefty dividend and has now retreated back down to the $59-$60 level.
That's an attractive entry point to establish new positions, so let's add Frontline to our Buy List, but don't pay more than $62 for the stock.
Finally, we're adding another great security to our portfolio in the form of Terra Nitrogen Co., L.P. (TNH)
Terra Nitrogen is a major U.S. producer of nitrogen fertilizer products with its primary manufacturing facility located in Oklahoma and two terminals in Nebraska and Illinois. TNH manufactures and distributes the nitrogen products farmers need to grow the crops that directly and indirectly feed the world.
What is special about this business model is that the demand for nitrogen products has continually increased, along with population growth, a rising standards of living and an increase in the demand for higher-protein food.
Terra Nitrogen Co. L.P. has demonstrated substantial gain in net income for distribution to unit holders. In the first quarter of 2008 TNH declared a $4.20 quarterly dividend payment. That's a run rate of $16.80 in annual dividends paid, for a current yield of 11.2%.
I'm looking for the stock to trade north of $170 in the next year as scheduled increases in corn plantings for the 2008 and 2009 winter planting season make for a strong pressure for higher nitrogen prices going forward.
I'll have more information for you about both Frontline Ltd. and Terra Nitrogen in the June Newsletter, but I want you to move on these recommendations now, before the landscape changes too much.
I'll see you tomorrow with the Weekly Update
Bryan Perry
Editor The 25% Cash Machine